Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh NOTA Analysis : Was it Expensive Star Campaigns or Unreliable Candidates?

In Dec 2017, two states of India, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh witnessed assembly elections. In both states, major fight was between two main parties Bhartiya Janta Patry (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC). Irrespective of the winner, None Of The Above (NOTA) played different roles in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Before going into details of votes against NOTA, let's see what exactly NOTA is: 

On Sept 27, 2013, After the Supreme Court judgement in Writ Petition (C) No. 161 of 2004; Election Commission of India has introduced the provision of "None Of The Above (NOTA)" in the ballot papers and EVMs. After this provision, a voter can reject all the running candidates and choose to vote none of the above. This provision only gives a chance to voters to reject all the candidates but it doesn't lead to re-election even if number of votes against NOTA are the highest. The candidate who secure maximum votes wins.  

So, NOTA does not play any direct role in elections, but it definitely signifies the importance of all other candidates contesting election in a constituency. If the contesting candidates deserve votes based on their party or personal profile, vote share is widely distributed among candidates but what if there is only one or two dominant candidates and a large portion of voters voted NOTA? Can we say that except one or two leading candidates, other candidates were not deserving or they failed to convey their ideas and agendas. What about a constituency with only two contesting candidates and a large section of voters voted NOTA? This is clearly an alarming situation. Here is an analysis of the number of NOTA votes in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. 

Number of Candidates per Constituency 

Gujarat is almost triple in size (182 seats) to Himachal Pradesh (68 seats). Final tally from Election Commission of India (ECI) shows that total 1.84% voters voted NOTA in Gujarat and 0.90% in Himachal Pradesh. Imagine NOTA as a separate party, which gets third largest vote share in Gujarat (pretty exciting news for them) whereas it was not the case in Himachal Pradesh. Election campaigns concluded that Gujarat is a more politically active (why not, there are more number of seats) territory than Himachal Pradesh. An average of 11.04* and 5.99* candidates contested on each seat in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh respectively. Gujarat constituencies have a variation of number of candidates from 3* to 35* and Himachal Pradesh 3* to 13*. Standard deviation of total number of candidates per constituency also confirm the variation in the number of candidates (Fig. 1).  

* NOTA is counted as 1 contesting candidate 

Fig. 1. Average number of candidates per constituency in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh 

Rank of NOTA among Candidates 

With an average 11.04* and 5.99* candidates per constituency in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh respectively, NOTA ranked between 3* and 9* in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. But the average position of NOTA in Gujarat was 3.58* which was higher than  4.43* in Himachal Pradesh (Fig. 2). This signifies that there were larger number of constituencies in Gujarat where NOTA was ranked at either 3* or 4*. This is also supported by standard deviation of NOTA ranks in Gujarat (STD of 0.97, more precise/consistent) and Himachal Pradesh (STD of 1.19, less precise/consistent). Voters in Himachal Pradesh voted for different candidates from different parties and chose to vote NOTA less than Gujarat (Fig. 2). 

3.46% voters (5265 votes) voted NOTA in Jhalod, Gujarat where only 2 candidates contested and INC candidate won by 25410 votes (16.72% of total votes) 

1.16% voters (624 votes) voted NOTA in Jhanduta, Himachal Pradesh where only 2 candidates contested and BJP candidate won by 4962 votes (9.24% of total votes) 

* NOTA is counted as 1 contesting candidate 

Fig. 2. Average position of NOTA among other candidates in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh 

Position Counts of NOTA 

As discussed above, rank of NOTA among all candidates for a given constituency is higher and more consistent in Gujarat than Himachal Pradesh (Fig 2). There were 63.2% seats in Gujarat and 20.6% seats in Himachal Pradesh where NOTA was ranked 3. NOTA was at 4th place in 24.2% constituencies in Gujarat and 39.7% constituencies in Himachal Pradesh. Securing 3rd place in 63.2% seats of an assembly raises many questions about the credibility of politicians (Fig. 3). However, there was no constituency where NOTA got maximum votes.

Fig. 3. Overall position of NOTA in all the constituencies of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh 

Conclusion 

In conclusion, voters in the state of Gujarat with a large number of total candidates and seats couldn't find a good alternative (or third party) and a large section of voters voted  for NOTA. Whereas, in a small state of Himachal Pradesh with less number of candidates and seats, voters opted to vote for other candidates and only 20.6% constituencies had NOTA as the third most preferred option. There can be two possible reasons behind this imbalance of NOTA vote share and ranks in the two states:

1. Expensive Star Campaigns (Gujarat): A large section of voters are influenced by huge, expensive and star campaigns which divert their attention from other (independent and small party) candidates. However, some voters with previous experience know that in reality negligible change is made out of campaign promises. As a result, they voted NOTA rejecting all the candidates. 
2. Reliable Candidates (Himachal Pradesh): Gujarat, which is a state of major importance in Indian politics had less number of reliable candidates than a small state like Himachal Pradesh (proved by the rank and share of NOTA votes in Gujarat in comparison to Himachal Pradesh).

For questions or raw data you can leave a comment here or contact on twitter @roshanindia 

The importance of two committees in Education and Healthcare formed by Delhi Govt

Healthcare and education are two basic necessities of every citizen. In order to fulfill these basic necessities, all the governments should be focused on improving their Healthcare and Education system. As far as it is for Delhi's Aam Aadmi Party Government, these two have always been it priority since beginning and government  executives are continuously working to improve these. In the trail of improvements, two recently (in the week of Dec 10th, 2017) formed committees in Education and Health can change the businesses and  services in these two sectors forever. Lets see what these committees are and what they intended for. 

1. Education: Fee Anomaly Committee 

After a 2+ year long fight between the Govt of NCT of Delhi and private schools; private schools can not increase tuition fee arbitrary, the govt also forced them to refund the increased tuition fee. After the implementation of 7th pay commission, some of the guardians complained about the school tuition fee increase to the Delhi Govt. Acting on complains, Delhi Govt formed a Fee Anomaly Committee on Dec 12, 2017. As per the circular, the committee will be effective in every district of Delhi and it will be consist of following members. 

1. The Deputy Director of Education of the District 
2. The Education Office (zone) 
3. A Chartered Accountant nominated by the Director of Education 

A parent or guardian of a student who attend any recognized unaided school may register a complain to this committee if a fee or any other charges are being levied by the school. The committee shall examine and scrutinize the individual complain and submit its report within 90 days. 

Image of full circular is given at the end of this blog. 

2. Health: 9 Member Committee 

Private hospitals are backbone of country's healthcare system. Some of the private hospitals also known for recommending unnecessary tests, prescribing overpriced medicines and delaying the treatment to overcharge the patients. Multiple incidents have been reported and some of the media personnel have published reports based on sting operations. Recent incident at Max Hospital in Delhi was one of the example as a result Delhi Govt suspended its License and stopped them admitting any new patient. After a pile of complaint against private hospitals, Delhi Govt has formed a nine member committee which will look into matter of overcharged medicines and consumables by private hospitals. Committee is consist of following members. 

1. Dr. Kirti Bhusan, Director General of Health Services (Contact) 
2. Dr. K K Agarwal, IMA President (Contact)  
3. Dr. R K Gupta, Ex DMA President (Contact)  
4. Dr. Arun Gupta, DMC President (Contact)  
5. Dr. Puneet Mahajan 
6. Dr. Ashok Kumar, Dy. Secy. Health and Family welfare Dept (Contact) 
7. Dr. Monalisa Borah, SMO (Nursing Home Cell) Health and Family welfare Dept (Contact) 
8. Dr. Chandra Prakash 
9. Dr. R N Das, Addl. Secy. Health and Family welfare Dept (Contact) 

According to the complains received, private hospitals earns 500% to 1000% profits on medicines and consumables. Government will decide the profit rates based on the committee recommendations. Delhi Govt will develop a protocol which will be mandatory to be followed by all hospitals. It is expected that out implementation of protocol, heath services in the capital will be approximately 50% cheaper than now. The committee will submit its report by Dec 31, 2017 by assessing the private hospitals in following aspects. 

1. Over-billing charges  
2. Denial of services 
3. Delay in services related to road accidents 
4. Forcing patients to buy medicines from hospital's pharmacy  
5. Unpleasant behavior from hospital doctors and staff 

Outcomes from above two committees will play very important role in country's Education and Health system. With time, education and health sectors are taken over by private institutions and on multiple occasions helplessness of governments have been observed. This is also because of lack of importance and facilities in government run services. A development of guidelines and their implementation out of these committees will ease the control by private institutions and make them accountable for their costumers. This will also reduce financial and mental pressure among parents/guardians of student and patients.  

Read More: 
12 things to know about Mohalla Clinics and the way these are strengthening Delhi healthcare system  
Online availability of drugs in Delhi hospitals 
A list of private hospitals operates 52 types of surgeries for free to Delhi residents 

References: 
1. Indian Express: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal warns private schools against arbitrarily hiking fees 
2. AajTak India Today: फीस के लिए बच्चों को परेशान करने वाले स्कूलों पर कार्रवाई करेगी दिल्ली सरकार 
3. NDTV: Delhi Government Toughens Stand Against Private Schools Hiking Fees
4. The Hindu: Panels to look into complaints of fee hike by private schools 
5. The Pioneer: GOVT FORMS 9-MEMBER EXPERT PANEL 

6. Outlook: Delhi Government Forms Expert Committee To Suggest Norms To Stop Overpricing By Private Hospitals 

7. India Today: Delhi health minister forms 9-member committee to keep check on overpricing by private hospitals 

Watch Saurabh Bhardwaj on Fee Anomaly Committee 

Watch Satyendra Jain press conference on nine member committee 

Read Full Circular from Delhi Govt on Fee Anomaly Committee 

 

A political journey of seaplane N181KQ

Its all started with news when some news channels and social media accounts reported from their sources that "PM Modi boards first seaplane in India". 

Photo credit: smhoaxslayer

It wasn't very hard for SMHOAXSLAYER and ALTNEWS to figure out that it was year 2010 when first seaplane service was launched in India. This doesn't stop on breaking a faking news. People further investigated the real deal behind the aircraft in the above picture. The registration number of the aircraft used by PM Modi is N181KQ and according to aircraft registration prefixes, it should belong to USA. @kapsology on twitter dig deeper into details, after going through the thread, I personally verified the details and putting the screenshots with source of the website. 

1. Owner of aircraft N181KQ 

According to database available on aviationdb.com which contains all current, deregistered, and reserved U.S. civil aircraft maintained by the FAA, it shows that the aircraft is owned by BANK OF UTAH TRUSTEE and it is registered in Utah USA. The general question can be, what this aircraft was doing in India, the answer can be it might be called by some third party. But who? 

Doesn't India owns such plane when service seaplane was started in 2010. Assuming all the possibilities that all the seaplanes in India were not available and Gujarat Police denied the PM Modi rally in Ahemdabad, the aircraft was arranged to display a grand show on Sabarmati riverfront. Remember, this riverfront played an important role in 2014. And the show was a success as all the media channels declared it as first seaplane until it was claimed as Hoax. 

2. BANK OF UTAH and Panama Papers 

More details about this trust can be found here. Yes this is an Aircraft Owner Trust which provides aircraft owner trustee services for US and non-US citizens and corporations. Bank of Utah has been accused in money laundering and Paradise papers. Read NY Times article on Secretive Help for a Russian Oligarch and His Jet and Leonid Mikhelson on Paradise paper who used Bank of Utah as a stand-in so he could register his Gulfstream jet in the United States.  

Image Source: NY Times 

Bank of Utah is like shield where "company" provide aircraft on its name in any country. Similar to WHOIS masking by godaddy where a domain registrant can mask their details going public. So who hired the aircraft which landed in India could never known except the government or Aviation department. 

3. Travelling Records of N181KQ 

Since it is not owned by any Indian company, it travelled across globe in past 90 days. Interestingly, before the aircraft landed in India, it started its journey from Karachi, Pakistan. And you know that Pakistan is a big deal during election campaigns. Even a prime minister can't finish his rallies without mentioning about Pakistan. What the aircraft was doing in Pakistan and who hired it there is not known. The Dec 1 to 12 flight path can be see here. 

Image Source: AltNews 

4. Tsuneishi Holdings Corporation 

According to Times of India article the aircraft was brought in by SpiceJet which signed a MoU with Japan's Setouchi Holdings two months ago to explore the opportunities for seaplane flights in India. The Japanese Setouchi Holdings bought American company (Quest Aircraft Company LLC) in 2015 which is further a subsidiary of Tsuneishi Holdings Corporation from Japan. The above press release about signing MoU with SpiceJet is missing from Setouchi Holdings website whereas another press release related to seaplane in Maldives can be accessed. 

A twitter trend said #हम_चैन_से_नहीं_बैठेंगे highlighted problems

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Dec 4, 2017 #हम_चैन_से_नहीं_बैठेंगे was trending in India trends. This conversation mainly started by @aamaadmiparty and continued by their supporters. This engaging conversation brought users together and highlighted almost all type of problems country in going through. Some of these are education, healthcare, corruption, Janlokpal, women security, soldiers, financial inequality, social inequality, homosexuality etc. Read some tweets from the conversation highlighting key issues in the country.  

This is how users said #iBribedKejriwal 

10 Ways to identify fake websites 

40 Services at Consumers Doorstep by Delhi Government

In a unique initiative, Delhi Aam Aadmi Party Government has decided to deliver 40 services to consumers doorsteps. There are 73 types of services which can be applied online via Delhi e-district portal. Each service has a prescribed timeline and can be tracked online using a unique tracking number. Now, 40 of these services can be accessed from home at your convenient time including weekends and evenings. A consumer need to call govt helpline and book an appointment. Govt representative will reach to the consumer address at the booked date and time. 

40 services which will be available at consumer doorsteps are given below. 

#	Service	Department
1	New Water/Sewer Connection	Delhi Jail Board
2	Mutation	Delhi Jail Board
3	Re-Opening (After rebuilding of house etc)	Delhi Jail Board
4	Disconnection	Delhi Jail Board
5	Issuance of Priority Household Card	Department of Food & Supply
6	Updating of Member Details in the AAY/ Priority Household Card	Department of Food & Supply
7	Issuance of Caste Certificate (OBC)	Department of Revenue
8	Issuance of Caste Certificate (SC)	Department of Revenue
9	Issuance of Caste Certificate (ST)	Department of Revenue
10	Issuance of Domicile Certificate	Department of Revenue
11	Issuance of Income Certificate	Department of Revenue
12	Issuance of Delayed Birth Order	Department of Revenue
13	Issuance of Delayed Death Order	Department of Revenue
14	Issuance of Lal Dora Certificate	Department of Revenue
15	Issuance of Land Status Report	Department of Revenue
16	Issuance of Permanent Identity Card to the Disabled Person	Department of Revenue
17	Issuance of ROR	Department of Revenue
18	Issuance of Solvency Certificate	Department of Revenue
19	Issuance of Surviving Member Certificate	Department of Revenue
20	Registration of Marriage	Department of Revenue
21	Enrolment as Civil Defence Volunteer	Department of Revenue
22	Marriage License to solemnize marriage between Indian Christians	Department of Revenue
23	Delhi Family Benefit Scheme	Department of Social Welfare
24	Handicap Pension Scheme	Department of Social Welfare
25	Old Age Pension Scheme	Department of Social Welfare
26	Duplicate RC Certificate	Department of Transportation
27	Change of Address in RC	Department of Transportation
28	Transfer of Ownership	Department of Transportation
29	Hypothecation Addition	Department of Transportation
30	Hypothecation Termination	Department of Transportation
31	Issue NOC	Department of Transportation
32	Learner’s License	Department of Transportation
33	Permanent Driving License	Department of Transportation
34	Renewal of Driving License	Department of Transportation
35	Duplicate Driving License	Department of Transportation
36	Change of Address in D/L	Department of Transportation
37	Registration of Construction Workers under Building and other Construction Workers (RE & CS) Act, 1996	Labour Department
38	Renewal of Construction Workers under Building and other Construction Workers (RE & CS) Act, 1996	Labour Department
39	Delhi Pension Scheme to Women in Distress (Widow Pension Scheme)	Social Welfare Department
40	Financial Assistance to Poor Widows for performing the marriage of their daughters and Orphan Girls (Earlier the name of scheme was known as Widow’s Daughter Marriage - WDM)	Social Welfare Department

Watch this video to understand about the process of this service.